𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐞 𝐀 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 -𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐫

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐰𝐚𝐫𝐟𝐚𝐫𝐞
𝐀 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐜 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐬𝐬𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐨𝐟 𝐑𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐚 -𝐔𝐤𝐫𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐖𝐚𝐫

A lot has changed since the last world war between 1939-1945(WWII). The recent all-out war between Russian and Ukraine has shown clearly the future of Warfare in terms of stratagem. Moving forward Nations now need new insights and approach when engaging in warfare.

Economic Stratagem
Since the end of world war two the world has changed the most economically and the driving force behind this is technology especially information technology . Information technology works without borders and thrives commercially by uniting the world, one of the areas of massive success is financial technology. When Hitler began his war adventure he was one of the most successful economy in Europe and the world yet he lost! Russia too was once the 8th largest economy of the world but today her economy is not any larger than the economy of Spain or South Korea, for such an economy wanting to confront the Economy of Europe as whole, America, Japan and other parts of the world combined is nothing but economic suicide – Russia is 1/14th of the economic size of America alone and she has about$630billion reserve in dollars putting together the economy that are waging economic war against her, Russia economy is less than 10% in terms of economic capacity. The income per head in Russia is about$6000 and the budgetary expenditure is $200bn compared to America with a budgetary expenditure of about $4.4trillion, Britain 1.05 trillion euro, Japan $941bn, Germany $700bn. By all or any standard Russia is not an economic power and clearly she lacks the capacity to execute a long-term war. Strategically Russia should be busy enhancing productivity, innovating the economy and working towards full employment and not fighting an unsustainable war. Not only about size economies are now interrelated, overlapping and sophisticated it is much easier to paralyze an economy when different major economies unite to do so, As I am writing this article the Russian treasury has raised her interest to 20% from 9.5% in less than six days of fighting if the war prolongs which it will, a wheel barrow of Russian currency might not be able to buy a loaf of bread. Russians should prepare for an economic blockade not just sanctions. The ability to trade easily with other parts of the world especially major economies is what has held the Russian economy together and not any internal ingenuity by the Russians themselves, internally the Russian economy is weak!

Digital Strategy
We are in a digital age any warfare without a digital outlook will fail summarily regardless of the momentum it may take. If Russia had evolved a plan that will disrupt or distract the digital capacity of the world perhaps it will be better but a plane warfare against the majority that allows for the smooth operations of digital structures and institution will easily spell doom for the aggressor. Precision technologies, communication technology, financial technology will be jointly wielded against Russia. Even Google a simple day to day precision technology also weighed into the war by disrupting the capacity of the Russians to navigate. One of the limitations of Russia is that it lacks an innovative economy and in recent terms she has not been an incubation of ideas and smart technology. Clearly Russia seems not to have a digital strategy for the war!
Timing
One of the things that Russia got wrong is the timing of the War itself, in the last two years the world battled COVID-19, we came together to fight it. we learnt unity, solidarity and maximization of interconnectivity in terms of technology and human management . The human community came together at their best to defeat COVID -19, Coming from such background easily unites the word against any form of danger or injustice. It is wrong to make a stand against the larger majority who has not just learnt the art of unity but have just benefited from the art and act of unity, they will easily wield their purposeful unity against you and that is what the major powers are doing.

Global Alliance
In a battle such as between Ukraine and Russia which goes land to land, people to people and history to history it is always beneficial to build alliance because interest are deep seated. So far, a handful of countries have supported Russia : Cuba, Iran, Syria, China, North Korea, Venezuela, Armenia and others, with over 190 countries in the world having less than 20 supporters and one major power behind you is nothing but a bad war strategy in terms of alliance. In a world that is keenly knitted and inter dependent this indeed is a poor strategy. The China factor will not hold water only 13% of Russia foreign reserve is in Yuan; this is not enough to motivate China to give Russia any significant support. The economic progress and stability China is building will not be thrown away because of Putin’s aggression and war mongering.

Battlefield
The days ahead will unveil more of Russia’s strategy but on the side of Ukraine she will not be found wanting in terms of courage and brevity. The stand against Russia has even endeared the world to their course more it is now clearly a David and Goliath scenario. Russia wasn’t prepared for what she is now getting. War is not about weapons alone the people and their resolve also matter! This is something Americans found out in Vietnam and Russia should have learnt from the soviet -Afghanistan war which dragged for about ten years, you only know the beginning of a war and not how it ends. As it is the war might take a bloody and protracted path. This will work more against Putin than Ukraine in the short and long run. The Ukrainians are willing to confront the bully once and for all even if it means they will stake their lives for it. However dangerous that may sound it is a worthy course we can’t make progress without emancipation. Cowards don’t ever make a great nation especially when you have a perennial bully as a neighbor.
Conclusion
The Nuclear Factor: I won’t consider this a strategy but destruction, if Russia dares to deploy nuclear war head the world might just have a reason to eliminate Russia out of the world map, yes damages will be sustained but that might be the end of Russia and Putin. No Ukraine to be gained but destruction in the end. Applying Nuclear weapons is not a war against Ukraine but the world! As the alliance against Russia continues not only the war effort of Putin will suffer, it will take a heavy toll on Russia from the inside gradually the external war will become an internal war. This war signifies the end of Putin the days ahead will bring this fact to light. Close to 7000 Russians protesting against the war have been arrested in 50 cities within Russia in less than 7 days of war and this is just the beginning . For those who are worried about the future of Ukraine, this is a war of necessity a tied hand can never be productive Ukraine must be free to fulfill her destiny in the community of mankind. Germany, Paris and other nations came up from the rubles of war to become leading nations Ukraine will rise.

In a global world knitted together material, humanly and in connectivity all warfare must take cognizance of this critical strategies or else circumstance might just not be favorable in whatever such nations seek to achieve by an open warfare!

Hon Adeyemi Abidemi Adebola.
Minorithy Whip KGHA 2011-2015
Director of Research
African Development Studies centre(ADSC).